Key Findings

• Families returning to the north are primarily motivated by untenable conditions in the south, particularly the lack of shelter (82% of KIs). They are also driven by strong emotional and social factors such as land attachment (75%), shelter availability in the north (80%), and family reunification (39%). Economic opportunity and service-related reasons remain secondary for these returnees. 

• Those families who remain in the south are influenced primarily by access and stability. Displaced northerners continue to stay where shelter (80% of KIs), basic services (52%), and humanitarian aid (42%) are available, with market access (13%) playing only a limited role. For these families, the south offers relative stability compared to the unreliable infrastructure and volatile dynamics in the north. 

• Future movement depends on recovery progress in the north. Key informants identified adequate housing (85%), restoration of services (82%), and improved security (59%) as prerequisites for further returns. Until these conditions are met, most displaced families are likely to remain in the south highlighting the need for simultaneous recovery efforts in the north and sustained humanitarian support in the south.